🌐 DE
🌙 Dark
Probability Concept
Bayes'
Theorem
A positive test on a rare disease — how worried should you be? Move the sliders.
PRIOR P(D)
1.0%
SENSITIVITY
90%
FALSE POS
8%
sick
healthy
test +
posterior P(D | +)
10%
prior P(D)
1.0%
sensitivity
90%
per 1,000 people
9 true + · 79 false +
tip: drop the prior — watch the posterior collapse
bayes.py